Are Your Seat Belts Fastened?

Posted on March 18, 2023 by tracyirwin

seat belts fastened for mortgage rate turbulence“Fasten your seat belts, it’s going to be a bumpy night” were the immortal words of Bette Davis in the 1950 classic movie, All About Eve. Know what else can be bumpy? Mortgage renewals. But they don’t have to be.

Inflation, the job market, and rising interest rates continue to be prominent factors in 2023. Will you be renewing your mortgage this year? Here’s what you need to know:

Survey Says!

Leger conducted an online survey with 1529 Canadians in October.

  • 53% of Canadian homeowners with a mortgage are concerned about an increase in their payments upon mortgage renewal.
  • In the same survey, 52% of homeowners said they already have a plan in place in the event of higher payments. 38% of those said they will cut back on spending, 9% said they’ll dip into savings, and 2% per cent said they plan to take on additional debt.
  • Only 2% of respondents said they would sell their house in light of higher mortgage rates.

What Many Homeowners Don’t Know (yet)

  • When asked how likely homeowners will be to shop around once they’re mortgage is up for renewal, 51% said they had no plans to change lenders and 9% said they weren’t aware this was even an option.
  • Not shopping around can cost you thousands of dollars over the term of your mortgage. Why? Traditional lenders have no incentive to offer you a competitive rate at renewal time.
  • Mortgage Brokers (like me) have access to hundreds of lenders. It’s our job to shop for the mortgage product that best matches your needs.
  • The professional expertise offered by Mortgage Brokers is paid for by the lenders, not you.

Following the path of least resistance is easy, but it’s not always the best option at mortgage renewal time. Do your due diligence. Let’s talk about your mortgage renewal today.

All In The Family…

“Family is not an important thing. It’s everything.” ~ Michael J. Fox

celebrating our growing family

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Who Doesn’t Love A Good Forecast?

Posted on January 9, 2023 by tracyirwin

Happy New Year. May 2023 be your year to shine!

housing and interest rate forecasts from Tracy Irwin, Mortgage Broker

We all know, forecasts are one thing, but reality can be quite another, especially when it comes to the weather!

Today, I’m featuring an excerpt from a Canadian Mortgage Trends article detailing housing and interest rate forecasts from all the major players.

What does 2023 hold in store for you?
If you’re thinking of making a change (re-financing or moving), let’s chat!

2023 Housing and Interest Rate Forecasts

“Rising interest rates in 2022 drove home sales and prices lower, though price declines have so far been somewhat modest compared to the run-up in prices in recent years.

But what does 2023 hold in store? Below, we’ve compiled an assortment of forecasts, with some predictions for relatively flat-lined growth, while others see further declines on the horizon.

Looking at 2022, projected figures suggest home sales will end the year at 532,545, a 20% decline compared to 2021, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). Home prices, meanwhile, are forecast to end the year up 4.7% to an annual average of $720,255.

Tight supply has been a recurring theme, with CREA noting the months of inventory measure remains historically low, despite improvements in recent months.

“In terms of monthly new supply, the bigger picture is listings are not flooding the market,” CREA noted. With the exception of 2019, November 2022 saw the fewest new listings for that month in 17 years.

While home price growth is expected to moderate in 2023, recent data show Canadians continue to hold a positive view towards real estate.

“Canadians are understandably hesitant to engage in the market early in 2023,” said Re/Max Canada President Christopher Alexander. “Despite this, more Canadians see real estate as a solid long-term investment when compared to this time last year.”

Real Estate Market

CREA

  • 2023 home sales forecast: 520,156 (-2.3% year-over-year)
  • 2023 home price forecast: $721,814 (+0.2%)
  • Commentary: “With interest rates on the rise, home sales have continued to cool. In some parts of the country, home prices have fallen from their peaks reached earlier this year, are flat in some regions, and are still climbing in others. The issue of not enough homes for sale has not gone away.”
  • Link

Interest Rate and Bond Yield Forecasts

The following are the latest interest rate and bond yield forecasts from the Big 6 banks, with any changes from their previous forecasts in parenthesis.

Averaging the forecasts, the Big 6 banks expect that the overnight rate has peaked at 4.25%, with the potential for one more quarter-point hike in early 2023.

Looking ahead to the end of 2023 and into 2024, analysts are pencilling in the first Bank of Canada rate cuts, which could take the overnight rate back down to the 3.00% mark by the end of 2024.”

Target Rate:
Year-end ’23		 Target Rate:
Year-end ’24		 Target Rate:
Year-end ’25		 5-Year BoC Bond Yield:
Year-end ’22		 5-Year BoC Bond Yield:
Year-end ’23
BMO 4.50% NA NA 3.00% (-85bps) 3.25% (-20bps)
CIBC 4.25% 4.25% NA NA NA
NBC 3.75% (-50bps) 3.00% (-75bps) NA 3.00% (-40bps) 2.65% (-50bps)
RBC 4.25% (+25bps) 3.00% (-100bps) NA 3.15% (-30bps) 2.75% (-20bps)
Scotia 4.25% (-25bps) 4.00% 3.00% 3.90% 3.55%
TD 3.75% (-50bps) 2.25% (-100bps) NA 3.10% (-60bps) 2.60% (+5bps)

Mortgage news you can use

I’m here to help! If you, or someone you know, wants to learn more about mortgage financing, including how Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) rules affect mortgage applicants, get in touch today.

Our Early Christmas Gift

Welcome Kali Blake Irwin to our growing family. Born on December 16th at 7 lbs 6 ozs. Big sisters Mila and Sloane are very excited (but did wonder if the baby could stay at the hospital and Mommy come home). We are delighted to welcome our 9th grandchild to our beautiful family.

 

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Feeling Squeezed?

Posted on November 16, 2022 by tracyirwin

squeezed lemon depecting the economy Prepare Yourself: “We Are Not There Yet”

Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada told the Senate committee on banking, commerce and the economy “This tightening phase will draw to a close. We are getting closer, but we are not there yet.”

While he recognized the strain Canadian households are facing – particularly those with significant debt loads – Macklem went on to say that higher interest rates are necessary in the short term in order to restore price stability and sustained economic growth. Ouch! “We don’t want this transition to be more difficult than it has to be,” he said. The latest rate hike (announced late in October) of 50 basis points means the Bank of Canada has raised its overnight target rate by 350 basis points since March. Double ouch!

Interest Rates
Macklem described the Canadian economy as “overheated” but added that increases in interest rates are beginning to show a moderating impact on growth. Sectors of the economy most sensitive to interest rate hikes include housing and big ticket spending. “But, the effects of higher rates will take time to spread through the economy,” Macklem said. “There are no easy outs to restoring price stability. We need the economy to slow down to re-balance demand and supply and relieve price pressures.”

Inflation
Macklem also reaffirmed, “The Bank of Canada’s job is to ensure inflation is low, stable and predictable. We are still far from that goal. We view the risks around our forecast for inflation to be reasonably balanced. But with inflation so far above our target, we are particularly concerned about the upside risks.” There is still work to do in order to bring inflation back to its target of 2%. The Bank expects headline inflation to average 6.9% in 2022 before falling to 4.1% in 2023 and 2.2% in 2024.

Forecast
The Bank of Canada predicts a slowdown in economic growth in the coming quarters, with GDP averaging 3.3% for all of 2022, just 0.9% in 2023, and increasing by up to 2% by 2024. “We expect growth will stall in the next few quarters—in other words, growth will be close to zero,” Macklem stated.

balancing the economyA Balancing Act
Macklem also described the bank’s challenge of trying to balance the risks of both under- and over-tightening.

“If we don’t do enough, Canadians will continue to endure the hardship of high inflation. And they will come to expect persistently high inflation, which will require much higher interest rates and, potentially, a severe recession to control inflation. Nobody wants that,” he said.

“If we do too much, we could slow the economy more than needed. And we know that has harmful consequences for people’s ability to service their debts, for their jobs and for their businesses.”

What Can You Do?

  1. Learn everything you can to understand the role that interest rates have on growth and inflation, and make them part of your decision making process.
  2. Stay up to date on the latest news including mortgage financing rates and future forecasts.
  3. Work with mortgage professionals (like me) when you’re contemplating a change or move.

Mortgage Financing Questions? Let’s chat!

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Running For Rachael Final Results!

Posted on November 16, 2022 by tracyirwin

Proud and Thankful!

running for rachael 2022The 10th Anniversary of Running For Rachael raised an amazing $35,563.98.

Once again, THANK YOU to everyone who participated, sponsored, and/or volunteered at our event.

The funds raised go towards financing city-wide suicide prevention training, Roots of Hope suicide prevention and life promotion initiatives, education and support programs for those who have experienced loss by suicide.

Check out Event Day, our list of Sponsors, and our shout-out to the many wonderful volunteers who helped out. You can also see our fun photo gallery.

Remember, together we CAN make a difference. See you next year!

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There’s Still Time to Support Running For Rachael

Posted on September 30, 2022 by tracyirwin

Running For Rachael logoSeptember 30, 2022: The preliminary results are in! We raised $35,173.98 of our $40,000 goal so far. We’re so close! A huge thank you to everyone who participated in and/or sponsored the 10th Anniversary of Running For Rachael. No doubt about it, last Sunday (September 25) was a great day for ducks and daisies but a little wet for runners and walkers. And yet – look at the results!

suicide prevention run/walk fundraiserAnd just so you know, there’s still time to donate! The Running For Rachael donation link is open until October 31. Funds raised are used to finance city-wide suicide prevention training, Roots of Hope suicide prevention and life promotion initiatives, education and support programs for those who have experienced loss by suicide. Together we CAN make a difference.

Event Day: Running For Rachael

  • 200 participants and volunteers enjoyed the closed Mall road loop
  • Messages of Hope
  • entertainment by The Country Dawgs
  • food sponsored by Fortinos Waterdown
  • and of course, Bruiser sporting his moves!

Thanks to Our Sponsors

Thanks again to all of our sponsors who contributed significantly to the success of this event. A special thank you to – CF Lime Ridge, RBC Foundation, Runner’s Den, Fiix by Rockwell Automation, MacKenize Financial, Marchese, Mercanti Management Inc., T. Lloyd Electric and The Printing House.

running for rachael hamiltonA Huge Shout Out to Our Volunteers (we couldn’t have done it without you!)

Special thanks to our 40 volunteers whose contribution ensured a great experience for everyone!

Running For Rachael is an uplifting community event that generates considerable mental health awareness and a better understanding of suicide prevention in our community.

Check out our photo gallery and if you can help – please donate to Running For Rachael before October 31 and help us achieve our goal!

 

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Hurry! 10th Year of Running For Rachael is September 25

Posted on September 14, 2022 by tracyirwin

suicide prevention run/walk fundraiserRegister Today: Running For Rachael – 10 Years of Building Hope! I am proud to be the Event Coordinator for Running For Rachael. This 5K run/walk  fundraiser is personal for my family.

This year is the 10th anniversary of Running For Rachael! Create a team with your friends and family, register as an individual, or make a donation. Our goal this year is $40,000. (We’re not even close.)

Where Does The Money Go?

Suicide Prevention Community Council of Hamilton (Registered Charity #83552155ORR0001).

Running For Rachael logoRunning For Rachael

Running For Rachael plays a vital role in supporting the city-wide work of suicide prevention in Hamilton by bringing the community together to promote hope, help and healing through crisis support information, training, education and support groups.

When a community comes together, lives are transformed. Our partnership with CF Lime Ridge is an important step in helping to engage the community. With Running For Rachael, everyone is part of the team. We celebrate and encourage one another to walk or run or donate to help others.

Running For Rachael starts at CF Lime Ridge, 999 Upper Wentworth St, Hamilton, ON L9A 4X5. Map.

We hope to see you on the 25th. Register today!

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Three Ways to Maximize Your Mortgage Financing Potential

Posted on September 14, 2022 by tracyirwin

how to maximize mortgage financing options2022 will be remembered for its highly competitive housing market.

Buyers need an edge. Those looking to renew their mortgage can reduce the mortgage approval limiting impact of the stress test – AND get further ahead with their mortgage financing by considering these strategies:

Maximize Your Mortgage

  1. Evaluate all your mortgage financing options. As a Mortgage Broker, I will help you assess each option. Let’s talk about your mortgage!
  2. Select a shorter fixed-term mortgage. Currently, 2 and 3 year fixed rates are generally less expensive meaning a modest advantage relative to the 5-year fixed rate.
  3. Choose a variable rate mortgage*, which currently means a stress test rate of 6.45% instead of mid 7%.

Know Your Risk Tolerance!

what to do about rising mortgage interest ratesIf you are going to lose sleep because of Bank of Canada rate increases, *don’t consider a variable rate mortgage right now! Even if the interest rate for a variable mortgage is less than the fixed rate mortgage, it could cost you more in the long run.

The Bank of Canada has raised interest rates a whopping 2.75% since April of this year, representing an unprecedented series of increases. Another increase is expected in October. Economists predicted a 1.5% increase for this year.

What we know for sure is that nothing is certain. Understanding your choices and how those choices will impact your finances is one way to get a better night’s sleep.

When it comes to mortgage financing and decision making, the more you know the better! Be informed. Ready to learn more? Let’s talk mortgages today!

The Sweet Life

Oh how sweet it is! Enjoy these happy snaps – the first of our adorable granddaughter, Lena. We spent some summer time with her in Vancouver. The second picture is my husband, Sid who finished 3rd in his division in an Ironman competition in Penticton, British Columbia. Outstanding!

 

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Why Homebuyers Don’t Always Get the Best Mortgage Financing Rate

Posted on August 9, 2022 by tracyirwin

Sometimes homebuyers enter the mortgage financing application process with expectations about receiving the best rate possible only to be disappointed when they discover they don’t qualify for it. It begs the question: Why don’t homebuyers always get the best mortgage financing rate available?

The short answer is: there are several factors taken into account during the mortgage financing application process that can impact qualification.

Buying a home is an emotional decision as well as a financial process, and often homebuyers don’t know or forget about some of the details the lender will take into account. Here are some of the common reasons why homebuyers who expect to qualify are later refused, or aren’t able to secure the best market rates possible.

Factors You Can’t Control

  • Soaring real estate prices
  • Rising interest rates

Factors You Can Control

  • Your credit profile (check for identity fraud)
  • Consumer debt
  • Inconsistent income or being self-employed
  • Divorce and child support (affects borrowing power)
  • No active credit
  • Over-used credit
  • Current collections

How I Can Help

Knowledge is power! Knowing exactly how a lender will be scrutinizing your application will give you confidence in the overall process and improve your odds of getting a better rate. I can help! Talk to me about achieving your goal of home ownership today!

 

Register Today for Running For Rachael – Sunday, September 25

Running For Rachael logo

Running For Rachael – 10 Years of Building Hope!

Running for Rachael plays a vital role in supporting the city-wide work of suicide prevention in Hamilton by bringing the community together to promote hope, help and healing through crisis support information, training, education and support groups. Who’s Rachael?

Running For Rachael 2022 – Sunday, September 25

This community 5K Run/Walk starts at CF Lime Ridge, 999 Upper Wentworth St, Hamilton, ON L9A 4X5. Map.

Create a team with your friends and family or register as an individual. Running or walking not your thing? That’s okay! You can be involved by making a donation and/or helping us spread the word.

Did You Know?

Your registration includes (a) a 10-year anniversary medal (b) a swag bag filled with great offers from CF Lime Ridge retail stores and local businesses, and (c) loads of fun for your family and friends! Register today!

 

Here We Grow Again!

 

 

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Changes in our Economic Landscape: What Does It Mean For You?

Posted on May 17, 2022 by tracyirwin

cooling offInflation and rapidly rising interest rates have cooled off the real estate market. Supply and demand has shifted. You’ve probably noticed more “for sale” signs in your neighbourhood. I know I have. That means the inventory of homes for sale is less of a concern right now. Great news, right? But that shift may cause another problem.

Rewind: for 2+ years during the pandemic-induced frenzy for real estate, most appraisals came back matching the purchase price (or higher). Fast forward to today: some homes are being valued for less than their agreed purchase price. Now what?

What Does a Lower Than Expected Appraised Value Mean?

  1. There is the possibility a low valuation has revealed issues such as the economic/useful life of the property, the discovery of mold, or structural problems. These factors will be a concern for your mortgage lender.
  2. If you presented an offer to purchase with no conditions of financing it means you are obligated to complete the purchase at the agreed upon price. Your mortgage lender may still offer you a mortgage – but perhaps not as much as you hoped. Here’s an example:
    • You’ve presented an offer to purchase (without conditions) for $1,500,000
    • You’ve agreed to a 20% downpayment or $300,000
    • The property has been appraised at $1,400,000
    • Your mortgage lender has offered 80% of the appraised value or $1,120,000
    • You’ll have to find an additional $80,000 to honour the purchase price of $1,500,000

The Bottom Line

The economic landscape is changing and it’s happening quickly. The moment you decide to jump into the real estate market, make sure you have a Mortgage Broker, like me, by your side. As independent professionals, mortgage brokers represent you, the client, not the lending institution. This provides you with the best advice for your mortgage needs. Bar none. Let’s talk!

Cycling the Trails on Mother’s Day

Fresh air and exercise help clear your lungs, lower your blood pressure, give you more energy and better mental focus!

Add to all those benefits fabulous weather and good friends and you’ve got the perfect Mother’s Day 2022.

Here’s me and my besties out for a ride on the beautiful Brantford Rail Trail.

Save the Date: Sunday, September 25

Running For Rachael logoRunning For Rachael – 10 Years of Building Hope!

Running for Rachael plays a vital role in supporting the city-wide work of suicide prevention in Hamilton by bringing the community together to promote hope, help and healing through crisis support information, training, education and support groups.

Running For Rachael is a community 5K Run/Walk taking place on Sunday, September 25, 2022 at CF Lime Ridge.

early bird offerEarly Bird Offer (available until June 15, 2022):
Friends and Family: $40
Individuals: $20

Register today!

Your registration includes (a) a 10-year anniversary medal (b) a swag bag filled with great offers from CF Lime Ridge retail stores and local businesses, and (c) tons of FUN!

Hey – thanks for following me. You’re appreciated!

 

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Creative Thinking in Mortgage Lending

Posted on March 22, 2022 by tracyirwin

Mortgage professionals agree, one way to solve the crisis of affordability for new home buyers is to change the amortization allowance on insured mortgages from the current 25-year limit to 30 years. Longer amortization periods are nothing new. The concept has been around since the 1950s when young growing families wanted a place to call home.

Could this ease the burden for first-time homebuyers and make housing more affordable for new entrants to the market? Let’s look at the numbers:

If you are in the fortunate position of putting down 20% or more, you could qualify for a 30-year amortization period, which would increase the amount of mortgage you would qualify for.

Household gross income $100,000

25 year amortization
Purchase price $600,000
Down payment $120,000
Maximum mortgage amount $480,000

30 year amortization
Purchase price $670,000
Down payment $134,000
Maximum mortgage amount $536,000

(*Based on stress test rate of 5.25%, a freehold property, annual property taxes $4,500, heating factor of $100 per month and approved credit score.)

Notice that your purchase price would be increased by $70,000 simply by utilizing the 30-year amortization. In today’s competitive market, you want every advantage you can find. Maybe the affectionately known, “Bank of Mom and Dad” could help in order to maximize your down payment and increase your borrowing potential.

Mortgage lenders are being incredibly innovative by introducing new lending products. My job is to help find the best fit for your mortgage needs. No strings (or fees) attached. Let’s talk mortgage financing today!

Celebrating My Ambassador’s Club Bronze Award

2021 ambassadors award badge Working hard to meet the mortgage financing needs of my clients is nothing new, but being acknowledged for my efforts is truly gratifying! Last month, I was inducted to Mortgage Centre Canada’s Ambassador’s Club, winning a Bronze Award in recognition as a Mortgage Specialist who has funded $15 to $25 million during the 2021 fiscal year. Thank you for your trust and confidence.

Celebrating Birthdays

birthday photos

 

 

 

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